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Goal Based Investing

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Step 6: Determine the per-year and per-month investments needed

Using the figures that we have till now, you can calculate the lump-sum amount that you can invest now to save enough for your goals. For this, you need to discount the "Cost Then" using the "Rate of Return". In simple terms, it means:

How much money you need today, so that it would grow into an amount equal to "Cost Then", if invested at a rate equal to "Rate of Return".

The formula for this is a variation of the compound interest formula:

Principal = Amount / [{1 + ( Rate / 100 ) } ^ Years ]

For us,

Principal = Lump-sum amount to be invested now
Amount = Cost of achieving the goal at the target time
Rate = Assumed rate of return
Years = Years till the achievement of the goals

For our goals, we arrive at the following figures:

Sr. No. Goal Cost Now Years From Now Cost Then Rate of Return Amt Needed Now
1 Buy an apartment 30,00,000 23 9214571 18% 204734
2 Buy a car 5,00,000 4 568238 6.65% 439225

Shocked by the amount needed to be invested now, for the goal of buying an apartment? But it is true - and this is the power of compounding. Since you are making a very long term investment, compounding would do most of the hard-work for you!

Also note that the "Amount needed now" is less than the cost of the goals today, because the assumed rate of return is higher than the assumed inflation rate. Since for goal 1, the difference is very high, the amount needed now is significantly lower than the cost of the goal today. For goal 2, the difference is less, and so the amount needed now is only slightly lower than the cost of the goal today.

The "Amount Needed Now" figure gives you the lump-sum amount that you can invest now to save enough for your goals. This would be possible if you have a one-time surplus - like a yearly bonus. If you have such a surplus, go ahead and invest it - and you won't need to invest every year or every month for the goal. But please be careful - I would suggest that even if you do have the amount needed, if you are investing in the stock market, make staggered investments so that you can benefit from cost averaging.

But most people would not have such a large amount at their disposal, and for them, the best way is to invest periodically. So, lets go ahead and find out how much you need to invest every year for each goal.





For doing this, we would use the concept of an Annuity, and we would do it using a function called FV (Future Value) in MS Excel. It looks something like this:

FV Function



Click here to download the worksheet for this example.

The FV formula gives the future value of a periodic investment, if we know the rate of return, the periodic investment, and number of periods (years).

Here is a little twist - we already know the answer for this formula, and that is the cost of achieving the goal at target time. What we don't know is the "periodic investment", which we need to find out.

So, in MS Excel, insert this formula, and adjust the value of the cell "periodic investment" such that the result of the formula is equal to the cost of achieving the goal at target time. This is the yearly investment needed to earn enough to achieve your goal in time! For simplicity, just divide this amount by 12 to get the monthly amount.

Sr. No. Goal Cost Now Years From Now Cost Then Rate of Return Amt Needed Now Amt Needed Per Year Amt Needed Per Month
1 Buy an apartment 30,00,000 23 9214571 18% 204734 37690 3141
2 Buy a car 5,00,000 4 568238 6.65% 439225 128650 10721





Step 7: Start Investing

Now that you know exactly how much you need to save each month for each of your goals, what are you waiting for? Go ahead and start investing!!

You can make the monthly investment needed through a mutual fund Systematic Investment Plan (SIP). If you have multiple goals, as you would in real life, you may combine the monthly investment needed for 2-3 goals and invest them together in a good MF SIP.

Happy investing!



Illustration:

Here is a table indicating the yearly and monthly savings needed if the goal of buying the house is 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 years away. Again, we assume the rate of inflation to be 5%.

Sr. No. Cost Now Years From Now Cost Then Rate of Return Amt Needed Now Amt Needed Per Year Amt Needed Per Month
1 3000000 5 3828845 18 1673623 535188 44599
2 3000000 10 4886684 18 933672 207756 17313
3 3000000 15 6236785 18 520872 102301 8525
4 3000000 20 7959893 18 290581 54286 4524
5 3000000 25 10159065 18 162108 29653 2471
6 3000000 30 12965827 18 90436 16393 1366

If the goal is 30 years away, you need to set aside a very modest sum of Rs. 16,393 per year. But if the goal is 10 years away, you have to set aside a hefty sum of Rs. 2,07,756 every year.

This example illustrates that the earlier you start saving, the better is the effect of compounding, and therefore, the lesser is the money that you need to invest. Time has a disproportionate positive effect on your returns.



Note:

The calculations that you would do depend on two very important assumptions:

  • Expected rate of inflation
  • Expected rate of return
  • Please note that both these need to be assumed as accurately as possible, as even a little change in these can vastly impact the amount needed to be invested every month, especially for long term goals.



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    Note: Please treat the opinion expressed here as a broad suggestion. Please consult your financial planner / investment advisor before making any investment decision.

     
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    Rating

    Comments

    Add a new Comment
    Author: manoj
    Dec 06, 2007
    Re: Goal Based Investing
    Excellent article! Explains in plain English the complicated process of Goal Based Investment... Good analysis for determining inflation rate and expected rate of return. The examples are great!

    Author: Vinay.R
    Jan 01, 2008
    Excellent Article
    This is Article is Very Important for youngsters like me to plan their own future

    Author: mailgopalmishra
    Feb 21, 2008
    Goal Based Investing Article
    Great Article

    LONG LIVE MAN!!!

    I appreciate your efforts ...you are really doing a great social service.

    Author: ketankhatu
    May 27, 2008
    Stock Market is going to go up with this article :)
    No where in the world can you find such a simple language. Its damn good!!

    Author: karviwhite
    Jul 09, 2008
    Goal Based Investing Article
    HUNTING WORDS TO APPRECIATE YOUR BEST EFFORTS.

    ITS REALLY MOTIVATING!!! WILL FOLLOW AS YOU ADVISED

    KARVIWHITE

    Author: prateeksgsits
    Jul 13, 2008
    excellent
    It was a v good article , thanks for explianing it in such a nice manner

    Author: BhanuMurty
    Aug 29, 2008
    Power of Compounding
    Good article , but not comprehensive enough to take other factors into consideration.
    For instance, it is not clear what the article aims at. Whether to go and purchase a flat or to save in safe /Volatile investment instruments...
    The power of compounding applies to both the real estate as well as equity investments. But the depreciation is also to be cosidered for real estate, especially if it is a flat, and the inflation after 23 years, we can't predict. remember , we were euphorinc about the low inflation in Janualry but now a worried lot. it is cyclic, and how come the 18% ROI is taken here i Do not understand. THere are instances that the property prices rise by 200-500 Percentage over 23 years span but incase of flats, are you willing to purchase a 20 year old flat now? Though it was just 5 lakhs in 1988, now it costs say 20 lakhs. Any suggestions? Fine, You say that it is the amount you have to spend to purchase a new apartment after 23 years. But why you stayed on rent for 23 years? are you investing in equities for 23 years while staying on rent. Have you considered the opportunity loss in case you have gone to purchase a flat 23 years ago? Or have you considered the Opportunity loss for not investing in equities for 23 years? are both these options are equivalent? any othere possibilities??
    Then there are many other questions. If at all I get some feedback on the above issues

    Author: BhanuMurty
    Aug 29, 2008
    Power of Compounding
    A. if the amount invested in equities or other instruments also compounds by the same 18 percent, how much we can gather? Out of which if we purchase the same old flat for (93 lakhs) after 23 years, the rest can be used for the retirement life.
    B. But if you have invested in a flat 23 years behind, how much you paid your bank, (Read the latest woes of the Floating percentage Loanees), what are you getting for 23 years and after that?
    Is A-B is Positive or Negative? Are we looking it as of today or after 23 years?
    We want to be happy throughout our lives. Isn't it?

    Author: raagvamd
    Sep 03, 2008
    Re: Power of Compounding
    Dear BhanuMurty,


    In the article, I am not comparing investment in equities with investment in real estate.


    The idea is to be aware of the financial cost of your goals in the future, and actively plan for them.


    Here's the essence of the srticle:


    1. Define the financial goals that you want to pursue. (Purchasing a house is just an example. It can also be your kid's higher education cost, or a corpus for your retirement).


    2. Determine the amount needed for the goal today.


    3. Determine the amount needed for the goal in the future, taking the trend inflation amount into consideration (which, as you have correctly pointed out, is prone to errors. But that is the best we can do)


    4. Find out what is the rate of return you can achieve (it would be the most through equities if you are investing for the long term. But depending on your comfort level, you can even invest in FDs!)


    5. Now that you know the return you can get and your target amount, find out the yearly / monthly amount that you would need to save and invest to achieve your goal.


    Author: Kedar
    Dec 26, 2008
    Excellent
    Excellent Article. Though it will take some time to understand everything, the eye opener is to consider various factors like inflation, cost then and now.

    Author: raagvamd
    Dec 30, 2008
    Re: Excellent
    Hi Kedar,

    Thanks for the encouragement.... Happy investing!

    Author: Ricky431847
    Jan 10, 2009
    Good Teaching through examples
    I like the way by which you tell about this. in this article you mentioned about power of compounding can you pls tell us how can we use it I mean from where we can start invest for this because i am scared about stock market. should we start like RD in Bank or Post Office and which kind of precaution can about choosing this investment.

    Thanks
    Keep going in this Way.

    God Bless you

    Author: raagvamd
    Jan 17, 2009
    Re: Good Teaching through examples
    Hi Virag,


    Thanks - I am glad that I am being of help.



    You can benefit from compounding whenever you reinvest your interest or earnings instead of using them. This way, you get further interest on the interest earned by you.



    It is not necessary to invest in stocks to reap the benefits of compounding. You can invest in any instrument - bank FD, post office MIS, PPF - anything.



    The key is to not use your earnings, and invest them instead.



    Having said this, the maximum benefit of compounding would occur if the instrument gives a higher return. Therefore, I recommended stocks for long term compounding benefit.



    If you are uncomfortable investing in stocks, you can start by investing small amount of money every month in a well performing mutual fund - through a syatematic investment plan (SIP).



    For more on this, please read "Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) - A rupee a day, keeps worries away".


    Author: Nagendra
    Feb 11, 2009
    Questions regarding investment, inflation, compounding, etc..
    Hello Raag Vaamdatt

    First of all, I like your name. Is this a pseudonym? It's a very powerful name with a very Sanskritic flavour to it. I love Sanskrit names. They are so powerful. It's a shame folks are now naming their kids like Tina, bina, etc.. Anyways, back to the main point. Would you please email me at the id I have provided so I can write to you privately about many questions I have? You come across as a sincere person with a desire to help, and I truly admire that.

    Regards

    Nagendra

    Author: Venkee
    Jun 23, 2009
    KUDOS
    Hi Raag,

    KUDOS... Your article is too good and very expressive. Even a layman can understand what you want to saY.

    You really deserve KUDOS.....CHEERS

    Venkee

    Author: Syed
    Jul 20, 2009
    Excellent stuff
    Great example. I didn't know such small saving can become huge savings. Thank you. Much appreciated.

    Author: Amit
    Jan 06, 2010
    Excellent
    You effort is much appreciated.
    For others who complains about flat/equities appreciatation, i think Mr. author is giving you sense about how to calculate/plan.We may consider inflation not 6-7% but can adjust it for asset appreciation, which may give us very aggressive target.

    Mr, author again salute to you.

    Author: kprajesh
    Jan 06, 2010
    Which are the Good MF SIP options?
    I heard the SBI and Reliance ones are good options. Please suggest.

    Thanks
    -KPRajesh

    Author: Ram A
    Feb 15, 2010
    Sir,
    I have surfed, several websites which just provides jsut a high level information on Investing.
    Each of the article on investing is very interesting and it provides an insight on the investing avenues around us.

    Thanks on sharing this knowledge to the people.
    Ram A

    Author: Arun
    Mar 04, 2010
    Investment Planning
    Hi Raag,
    I was a naive during my intial days of employment.I always thought can someone explain the terms of financial world.

    I have been following this site, although silently, from the last two years and found it of great help. I can now proudly explain or discuss about investing. I felt great after reading this article.You are helping all of us in many ways than few.

    I appreciate few people here who complained about the depth in this article.To all those, articles in this site are of fantabulous help for us as we are from IT background. This guy here is helping us invest and reap benefits later.he is helping us individually and helping India indirectly.

    Thanks again Raag for your valuable effort in putting all this information.

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